GRAIN CENTRAL | Indonesia-US deal could challenge Aus wheat market

A new trade agreement between Indonesia and the United States is raising concerns about the future of Australia’s largest wheat export market, with around 2 million tonnes of demand set to be preferentially sourced from the US.

Indonesia typically imports 10–11 million tonnes of wheat annually, with Australia supplying a significant share, meaning the deal effectively removes part of the market from normal commercial competition.

Grain Producers Australia Chair Barry Large told Grain Central that the development reflects a broader shift in how global grain trade is being shaped.

“The bigger issue is what this signals for global grain trade and how it impacts us as producers,” he said.

He warned that if agricultural trade becomes increasingly driven by geopolitical considerations, it could reduce the share of markets open to competition.

“If countries begin directing agricultural purchases to manage relationships with major economies, the rules of global trade start to change,” he said.

Mr Large said for Australian growers, maintaining access to open and competitive markets remains critical, particularly given the industry exports around 70 per cent of its production.

“Australian producers depend on transparent and competitive export markets, and it’s important those markets remain open.”

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