Australia's winter crop is on target to exceed last year's planting but overall production could be significantly lower than last year, a Rabobank report shows.
In its annual Australian winter crop outlook the agribank forecasts 23.48 million hectares will be planted this year, up 0.3 per cent on last year.
But drier growing conditions will take a toll, with the harvest totals expected to be lower at 49.7 million tonnes, compared to last year's record 67.3 million tonnes.
And if climate models indicating El Nino conditions are accurate, production could drop to its lowest level in four years to 41.2 million tonnes, the report says.
Mixed Western Australian farmer and chair of Grain Producers Australia Barry Large said drier conditions would take a toll on this year's harvest and growers were nervous.
"It could quite easily be 25 to 30 per cent down on last year easily," he told AAP.